Mark Skousen has been a leading voice in the discussion of gold prices. In June of 2020, the expert noted that gold prices needed to exceed US$2,000 per troy ounce before it was able to remain there longterm.
The rationale behind Skousen’s argument is based on the increasing geopolitical uncertainty in the world. Gold is seen as a reliable form of backup currency or a hedge against inflation. As geopolitical tensions rise, gold is increasingly sought by both institutional and retail investors seeking protection from future economic events.
Skousen’s idea is that if gold breaks through US$2,000 it will show that its long-term value is beyond basic protection against smaller geopolitical events. Rather, it will showcase gold as a currency that can withstand global or long-term events. A gold price of US$2,000 would provide a strong confirmation by the market of golds long-term value and yield investor confidence that it can remain above that level in the long-term.
Given the souring geopolitical conditions, gold has begun to rise above US$2,000. This has largely been due to a weakening US Dollar, which has depreciated in the face of increased US spending as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. This has lead to more investors buying gold as a safe haven against the stock market volatility.
However, for Skousen’s story to be correct, gold will need to stay above US$2,000 – otherwise investors could view the rise as short-term and be less willing to invest longterm. This could lead to a collapse of the gold price as investors try to cash out their profits.
To prevent this from happening, the gold industry needs to focus on long-term economic stability, either through fostering positive conditions or through gold-backed exchange-traded funds and other alternative gold funds. In the short-term, investors should be aware that if gold is to maintain its price at or above US$2,000 it will require a strong commitment to the longterm stability of gold prices. Otherwise, the market could go into a downward spiral.